Energy Policy (America - We have a problem!) Peak Oil - Hubbert's Peak Learn about Hubbert's Peak. ANWR won't solve the problem. |
The world currently uses about 85 million barrels of oil a day. It is
projected that by 2030, global demand will increase by about 35%.
This will bring the demand to around 115 million barrels a day. It is also
predicted that global supply is about to start decreasing. So in 2030
the world will want 115 million barrels of oil a day, but there will be
considerably less than the current 85 million barrels a day available.
projected that by 2030, global demand will increase by about 35%.
This will bring the demand to around 115 million barrels a day. It is also
predicted that global supply is about to start decreasing. So in 2030
the world will want 115 million barrels of oil a day, but there will be
considerably less than the current 85 million barrels a day available.
Learn about Hubbert's Peak
In 1969, M. King Hubbert predicted that the world production of oil
would peak in the year 2000. (current estimates say it peaked in 2005)
In 1956, Hubbert used the same methods and made the prediction that
the U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970's. He was right,
and U.S. oil production has been in decline ever since. Assuming that
Hubbert is right again, global oil production is about to enter a
permanent decline. This is referred to as Peak Oil or Hubbert's Peak.
What that means is that no matter who you are, or what you want to
believe, each year from now on, there will be less oil produced than
the year before. Drill baby drill sounds like a great idea, but there just
isn't enough oil left out there to increase the current level of production
would peak in the year 2000. (current estimates say it peaked in 2005)
In 1956, Hubbert used the same methods and made the prediction that
the U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970's. He was right,
and U.S. oil production has been in decline ever since. Assuming that
Hubbert is right again, global oil production is about to enter a
permanent decline. This is referred to as Peak Oil or Hubbert's Peak.
What that means is that no matter who you are, or what you want to
believe, each year from now on, there will be less oil produced than
the year before. Drill baby drill sounds like a great idea, but there just
isn't enough oil left out there to increase the current level of production
ANWR won't solve the problem
There has been a lot of talk about drilling in ANWR (Alaska National
Wildlife Refuge). We might end up doing that, but lets do the numbers.
Depending on who you ask, there may be 3-9 billion barrels of oil in
ANWR. For this example, we will use 5 billion. The U.S. uses 21 million
barrels a day. So 5 billion divided by 21 million equals 238 days worth
of oil for the U.S. If we divide the 5 billion by the 85 million barrels the
world uses per day, we would get about 59 days worth of oil.
Then what?
Well, there are other places to drill, but we still run into the same old
problem. There isn't that much new oil left out there. It is estimated that
we have hit 94% of all the oil that we ever will hit. We are not going to
drill our way out of this.
Wildlife Refuge). We might end up doing that, but lets do the numbers.
Depending on who you ask, there may be 3-9 billion barrels of oil in
ANWR. For this example, we will use 5 billion. The U.S. uses 21 million
barrels a day. So 5 billion divided by 21 million equals 238 days worth
of oil for the U.S. If we divide the 5 billion by the 85 million barrels the
world uses per day, we would get about 59 days worth of oil.
Then what?
Well, there are other places to drill, but we still run into the same old
problem. There isn't that much new oil left out there. It is estimated that
we have hit 94% of all the oil that we ever will hit. We are not going to
drill our way out of this.
We are not going to drill our way out of this
So what do we do? Pretty much everything that we can think of. Some
ideas include:
ideas include:
- Increase fuel efficiency standards for vehicles.
- Drive fewer miles and improve public transportation.
- Explore every new energy saving technology.
- Research and develop renewable energy sources.
- Buy locally produced items.
- Stay home.
| * If you have any questions or comments about the grumpyoldgoat.com please contact us by email. email the goat * |
Here are some Peak Oil
links on YouTube from
How to Boil a Frog
(a bit depressing)
links on YouTube from
How to Boil a Frog
(a bit depressing)
A great resource,
this book lays out
the peak oil
concept in a
highly readable
way. He also
covers the pros
and cons of coal,
tar sands, heavy
oil, oil shale,
uranium, and
hydrogen.
this book lays out
the peak oil
concept in a
highly readable
way. He also
covers the pros
and cons of coal,
tar sands, heavy
oil, oil shale,
uranium, and
hydrogen.
BEYOND OIL - THE VIEW FROM
HUBBERT'S PEAK by Kenneth S. Deffeys
HUBBERT'S PEAK by Kenneth S. Deffeys
Deffeys worked with Hubbert
for several years at Shell Oil.
To learn more about Deffeys
and his book, follow this link
to BEYOND OIL
for several years at Shell Oil.
To learn more about Deffeys
and his book, follow this link
to BEYOND OIL
Read the article on
Hubbert's Peak at
Wikipedia
Hubbert's Peak at
Wikipedia
TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT:
THE COMING SAUDI OIL SHOCK AND
THE WORLD ECONOMY
by Matthew R. Simmons
THE COMING SAUDI OIL SHOCK AND
THE WORLD ECONOMY
by Matthew R. Simmons
This book offers
a great look into the
Saudi oil industry.
The author
reviewed over 200
Saudi technical
papers published
by the Society of
Petroleum
Engineers. He
discovered that
things are not
so well in the
Kingdom of Oil.
a great look into the
Saudi oil industry.
The author
reviewed over 200
Saudi technical
papers published
by the Society of
Petroleum
Engineers. He
discovered that
things are not
so well in the
Kingdom of Oil.
Here are some more
Peak Oil links on
YouTube
Peak Oil links on
YouTube
